[Aztlan] Droughts & History in Mesoamerica

[ECOLING at aol.com]

 There are a couple of new files accessible from the page
www.TraditionalHighCultures.com/Calakmul.html
or directly as
www.TraditionalHighCultures.com/Climate_and_History.pdf
www.TraditionalHighCultures.com/Maya_Last_Inscriptions.pdf

These were stimulated in part by patterns of inscription dates in
Calakmul and SE Campeche, to a great extent by Gill (2000)
_The Great Maya Droughts_ and by a recent article in _Science_
7 November 2009.
Thanks to Bill Puppa, Steve Daniel, Helen Alexander, and
Cindy Hesel of the Washington DC glyph group for some very
good discussions on 24 January, which helped to greatly improve
earlier versions of these two new files now online.
All errors of course remain my own fault.

*

Gill (2000) argues the case that periods of extreme cold
(linked with droughts in the Maya area) bear a major share of
responsibility for the collapse of the Classic. 
If we select only the two most extreme ones,
to avoid the problem of attributing human events to something else
when there is always something else happening, these extremes are:

810-910 AD esp. 810, 860, 910 with the Mayan Classic Collapse and
     the end of the Tang dynasty in China.

1451-1454 AD, the fall of Mayapan,
and the great Central Mexican drought of the year "1 Rabbit" (1454),
    so severe that the Aztecs shifted the New Fire ceremony beginning
    each 52-year cycle to the next year 2 Reed instead.

There appears to be a high correlation of measures of climate
in Mesoamerica, in North America (bristlecone pine growth),
and even partly in Swedish tree rings.  There was more than just
one "Little Ice Age".  Not perfect correlation.

Gill's (2000) approach needs I think to be modified by recognizing
more contributing role for human history.
The end of inscribed monuments at Mayan sites along the Usumacinta
(Palenque, Piedras Negras, Yaxchilan, and Bonampak)
may have been caused in large part by migrations or invasions of
other peoples.
So the dates when they stopped erecting stone inscriptions
may not so closely reflect climatological changes.

At least on a partial read of Gill (2000), there seemed to be a need
for more specific information on evidence for actual droughts
at each specific site, from paleobotany, archaeological evidence
of starvation, or the like.

I hope the framework presented in these files and the information
accumulated there, including the focus on which cold / dry periods
to pay the most attention to, and hopefully in the future on
which droughts and famines to pay most attention to,
can stimulate others to more rigorous and in-depth studies of
these questions.  Gill (2000) does contain much additional information
on droughts and famines in the colonial period, in Spanish records.

An intriguing possibility is that as the production of stone monuments
stopped, so writing on bark paper or on skins became more important.
It is intersesting that the oldest Mixtec written history, the beginning
of the Codex Bodlay, dates to a time just shortly before 900 AD,
that is the end of the Classic (this date in the most widely
recognized standard interpretation of Mixtec chronology,
that by Emily Rabin).  Why would earlier records not have been
copied into the new medium before that time?  Was the earlier regime
no longer a source of legitimacy because of its failure to ensure
abundant harvests?

The earliest alphabetically written Mayan history, that in the
Chilam Balams, may date to 692, if Edmonson's proposed analysis
of the Chilam Balam of Tizimin is correct despite his own doubts
(on his p.3).  That is earlier than 900 AD.

The end of the Tang dynasty in China saw a lack of attention
to water works, and a "surprising" blossoming of printing,
from wood blocks.  I do not assume there is any direct relation here,
but it is an interesting coincidence

For the relevance to Calakmul, consider whether parts of the population
of Calakmul might have gradually shifted to Oxpemul,
a bit to the north, starting shortly before the time that Tikal defeated
Calakmul in 695.  The dates of inscriptions make this plausible.
Notice how close this is to 692, the date at which the Xiu cycle
ended and the Chich'en cycle began, according to a Chilam Balam,
the Chich'en cycle itself to last for 10 K'atuns or about 200 years,
that is until about 900.

Best wishes

Lloyd Anderson
Ecological Linguistics
PO Box 15156
Washington DC 20003
ecoling at aol.com
202-547-7683


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