[Aztlan] global warming and the Incas

[Lisa J. Lucero]

Hi all,
As someone who studies the Maya 'collapse,' I had to weigh in.  While the relationship  between a long-term drought is not as straightforward as some claim, I have argued that a long-term drought set in motions events that ultimately led to rulers losing their ability to acquire tribute/services from other.  THus, rulers disappeared, people did not.  People abandoned rulers and centers (most of which is monumental architecture and open space), not the entire southern Maya lowlands. It was bad enough where some farmers did head out in all four directions.  Some stayed, others came back. Rulers never did.
I also discuss how each center has their own particular history--why were some centers abandoned before others? Why weren't some abandoned at all (e.g.,Lamanai was occupied until the 17th century).  Even if some centers were occupied after the 900's, it was by elites and commoners--not kings.  I can say that the most powerful rulers (e.g., at Tikal, Calakmul, Caracol, Naranjo) lived in areas with plentiful agricultural land--but without permanent water sources. Instead they build massive artificial reservoirs--on which the relied on annual rains to fill them.  Even slight changes in rainfall patterns over the long term could be a problem, not only for dry-season drinking water, but rainfall-dependent crop cycles.  For more, I have provided some references at the end.

A few summary points to keep in mind (and I admit, not all Mayanists do):
1.  what collapsed was the political system--not the entire social system; the Maya never disappeared, just kings
2. occupation histories are different from political histories. For example, there is evidence that the major site of Caracol was occupied after the political collapse--but by elites and farmers--not kings.

Refs:
Lucero, Lisa J.
2002  The Collapse of the Classic Maya: A Case for the Role of Water Control. American Anthropologist 104(3):814-826.
2006  Water and Ritual: The Rise and Fall of Classic Maya Rulers. The Linda Schele Series in Maya and Pre-Columbian Studies. University of Texas Press, Austin.
Best,
Lisa J. Lucero
---- Original message ----
>Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:41:57 -0700
>From: Michael Smith <Michael.E.Smith.2 at asu.edu>  
>Subject: [Aztlan] global warming and the Incas  
>To: <aztlan at lists.famsi.org>
>
>It is always fun to juxtapose paleoclimatic data and cultural
>developments, as in the notice on global warming the the rise of the
>Inca. For the Maya, droughts and the collapse remain a major topic of
>debate (with no resolution in sight, it seems). For central Mexico,
>consider that the period from 500-1100 AD was a time of lowered
>rainfall, according to British limnologists (see citations in my The
>Aztecs, 2nd edition, 2003, chapter 1 I think). Wow, that drought must
>have caused the fall of Teotihuacan and the rise of the Aztecs! Well,
>these are two research questions we can now cross out as solved!
>
>Oops, sorry about the sarcasm. My point here is that it is easy to
>juxtapose two kinds of chronological phenomena, but much more difficult
>(or even impossible, it sometimes seems) to establish a causal
>relationship. Just how can we go about establishing empirically that
>climatic events or processes in the past influenced (or even "caused")
>cultural transformations as documented by archaeologists? I am unaware
>of rigorous methods and standards for doing this.
>
>To some people, the simple co-occurrence of such events provides
>sufficient justification. "There were droughts around the time of the
>Maya collapse? Well, now we have solved that mystery." To others, such
>natural phenomena can never provide sufficient explanation for human
>cultural change. "Use of the environment, and environmental effects, are
>culturally mediated, so environmental variables alone can never generate
>cultural change." I have blogged about this at:
>
>http://publishingarchaeology.blogspot.com/2009/05/maya-collapse-when-the
>oretical.html
>
>Environmental data on climate and rainfall and such are great, but until
>someone comes up with rigorous methods for evaluating their influence on
>cultural processes, I remain very skeptical about most interpretations.
>(My own hunch is that the central Mexican droughts WERE important in the
>fall of Teo and the rise of the Azttecs, but this remains a hunch).
>
>Mike (in Mazatlan, photographing the very nice collection of Sinaloa
>pottery in the INAH museum, and enjoying the shabby colonial atmosphere
>in the old city)
>
>Michael E. Smith, Professor
>School of Human Evolution & Social Change
>Arizona State University
>www.public.asu.edu/~mesmith9
>http://publishingarchaeology.blogspot.com
>http://calixtlahuaca.blogspot.com
>
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>
Lisa J. Lucero, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
Department of Anthropology
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
109 Davenport Hall, MC-148 
607 S. Mathews Ave.
Urbana, IL 61801
Office phone: 217-244-7896
Fax: 217-244-3490
http://www.anthro.illinois.edu/people/ljlucero